China is rising, this much is certain, but rising to what? To answer this question I think that we ought to take a look at the larger historical context. In my opinion, the world is returning to a multi-polar configuration, within which China is bound to be one of the greatest powers on the board, one which will see power diffused across a broader globalized landscape of mutually interdependent nation-states. War makes for an interesting discussion, but so does peace; I think it would make more sense for us to be asking what the world will look like in the future without some crazy war taking place.
Before the industrial revolution, an unprecedented phenomenon, the West was extremely backwards. The Rennaissance and, more importantly, the Protestant Reformation were certainly undermining small-minded traditionalism and authoritarianism, the medieval way of life that gave so little breathing room to European hearts and minds, while allowing genius to prosper and fostering a capitalist, competitive work ethic. Nonetheless, the Western world was relatively undeveloped economically, politically and militarily compared to the thriving empires of the East.
The Muslim Ottoman Empire, for example, enjoyed a long period of prosperity in which it was seen by Europeans as a powerful scourge that was able to relentlessly push further and further westward into the Balkans - the "sick man of Europe" (as the Ottoman empire was later known as it slowly decayed under the weight of their own corruption and conservatism) was once "the scourge of Europe" - as well as a place of marvel and wealth to be envied. Generally speaking, while the Western world was wallowing in its dark ages the Muslim world was enjoying peace, prosperity and progress. So much of the Renaissance would've not been possible were it not for the role played by the Muslim world in protecting and promoting science and philosophy. The history of the Middle East has always been tied up in its innate geographical circumstances; for better or worse, it's in the middle of everything. Simultaneously the region is cursed and blessed by the trading routes that run through it and the diversity of its peoples, two traits that can serve to enrich peace r embolden war - depending on the circumstances.
China and India were the world's major manufacturing centres before the ascent of the West turned them into colonies. Interestingly, this status seems to be re-emerging today in many ways. These were the lands of silk and spice, Buddha and Lao Tzu and Confucius and Krishna, untold mystery and wealth, and great power. Many great empires have risen and fallen on the Indian subcontinent while Chinese dynasties enjoyed unchallenged hegemony over the world they knew, nearby powers being tributaries rather than competitors. Was China planning on taking over the whole world back then? Its unlikely that any emperor would've bothered. China was vast, its neighbours generally untroublesome, and ruling over non-Chinese spread across an even vaster territory would be a bureaucratic nightmare. There were always wars between the Chinese, the Mongols, the Indians, the Persians, the Arabs, etc., but Europe, especially Western Europe, was never a big concern for any of these powers. Even the crusades, the great war waged by the Christian world upon the Muslim world, was a mere annoyance compared to the onslaught of the Mongols. Even when China and India were suffering greatly they were still seen as the greatest beacons of civilization by those who knew enough to judge.
The pre-eminence of the East and the irrelevance of the West might seem like ancient history, but it is a powerful memory that plays a pivotal role in the collective minds of many non-Westerner societies today. Today we may be tempted to look at China and India much as they were likely to look at us way back then; backward, less advanced peoples that are bound to stay backwards and less advanced unless they can mimic our behaviour and our systems effectively enough to stay, maybe, at best, only a few steps behind. As far as we hold this view we invite our own decay and eventual defeat. Empires implode; they rot from within as they become more and more riddled with corruption, consumed with internal political drama, overconfident in their own greatness, overburdened by their excessive acquisitions, repressive in the face of ingenuity, lazy in the face of their comforts, ungrateful in the face of their dominance over others. These are the attitudes that have helped the East fall from glory, and they are contributing to the decline of the West today.
When Europe was the centre of the world it was divided itself in many different ways; Germany, Austria-Hungary, France, Spain, England, Russia, and the Ottomans vied with one another on a complex multi-polar political landscape in which one nation would try to gain advantages over others and shift the balance of power in their own favour. By the early 20th century this balance of power had manifested itself, inflexibly and precariously, as a bi-polar alliance system that was easily erupted into a war of attrition, the Great War, between two opposed sides. In many ways, this laid the foundation for a bipolar international system. By the end of World War II the world was divided again into West and East, but this time the thin, red and invasive dividing line was the iron curtain that cut across Europe instead of the vague mysteriousness of Asia's enormity.
The Cold War saw the world separated into two camps; Communist and Capitalist. This is perhaps still the most common understanding today, though it is important to note that the Communist camp was never unified and that the undeveloped South had its own interests and worldviews that, while easily subjugated to those of the North, were and are quite real. The collapse of Soviet Authoritarian Communism and subsequent takeover of American Neoliberal Capitalism brought us to the unusual historical moment we find ourselves in today. Unipolarity under an American hegemon.
Will China take over the world? This hardly seems to be the appropriate question. The obvious answer is that, no, China will not take over the world. If history has taught us anything, it is that the world is untakeable by any one nation. Nobody ever conquered the world. Nobody ever conquered Europe, either, but with the ongoing development and integration of the EU we can see the possibilities and potentials of intelligent cooperation between power centres to establish good governance and maintain peace under some semblance of consensual unity. China won't take over the world, nobody will, nobody can, especially with so many nuclear weapons lying about.
Perhaps it isn't entirely accurate to say that nobody can take over the world at all, period. I'm sure, though, that nobody could take over the world for very long. A more appropriate question in regards to taking over the world is: has the US already done it?
No. In military terms, the US spends more than every other country on the planet combined. In technological terms, the US is ahead of everyone in everything. In economic terms, the US possesses the largest and most powerful economy in the world and US based Transnational Corporations (TNCs) possess much of the world's wealth, but the American economy is deeply troubled, essentially propped up by the limited gifts of Saudi Arabia's cheap oil, China's cheap labour and the Third World's natural resources. In social terms, the US has an incredible amount of soft power, largely based in Hollywood, that forms the perceptions of people around the globe about the world they live in and the greatness of America; but American society is also deeply troubled, with democracy having come to be regarded as somewhat of a sham, the aggressive emergence of a police/security-state, while wages and educational standards fall as obesity and crime rates soar. Nowhere does America dominate; Hollywood is being challenged by Bollywood, 'American' jobs are being outsourced while TNCs are free to relocate overseas and other powerful economies are growing much faster, Japan and Europe are on the cutting edge of new technologies in many areas and even the unmatched power of the American military is unable to effectively control Iraq in the face of a fanatic guerilla insurgency and persistent domestic pressure.
The US enjoys pre-eminence for now, but it won't last forever. A bumpy road lies ahead for the whole world, but especially for the US. We continue to see China become more and more powerful, in absolute and relative terms, but this can be said for other countries as well. Will India take over the world? What about Tajikistan?
Whoever does or doesn't take over the world, we all have to live on it, in war and in peace. This would be done most easily in peace, and it would be done most comfortably if we were all able to take over our own lives and leave the world the hell alone.
How much say do you have over what goes on in the world? In your country? In your region? In your town or city? In your family? In your own head?
I think we ought to take note of the fact that our national identities are merely social constructs and that we are all just human beings trying to live life as happily as we can. Why distract ourselves from this truth with pointless arguments about the comings and goings, risings and fallings, of the various actors on the great big political stage that our world has become? Football distracts us from politics in the same manner that politics distract us from reality. It is worthwhile to be political, to fight for how you believe the world should be, to endeavour to build a better tomorrow for our children. But when this struggle becomes an abstraction, a hot-topic for mindless chatter, a meaningless gameshow of giggles and grunts, we ought to take a hint and back up for a moment. We are doing a grave disservice to ourselves!
Let's all just take over the world together and try to enjoy the rest of our lives before we fade into history.
