Forums → WEPR → Is there a Revolution on the horizon?

Throughout out History revolts occur when:
-Government Corruption is large
-When economy is in a large debt and massive raising inflation
-When Military is overspread and is too weak to suppress both foreign and domestic problems.
-Famine and Plague
-Massive unemployment
-No confidence in current government

In today's time, they are some signs of a revolt, but the conditions are that bad yet.

To me, the question is not 'Is there...?" it's "Should there be...?" Sometimes, quick solutions are the best ones. A 'revolution', depending on how it is handled, can do just that.

I'm a bit long-winded, bear with me.

One of the most well-known revolutions was the American Revolution in the late 18th century. It took 100 months from April, 1775 to Sept., 1783. During this time, approx. 50,000 people fighting for the colonies were killed due to the war efforts. About 500 per month.

Now, let's consider that 'war' is synonymous with 'revolution'. Coups, however bloodless they are, will likely trigger more rioting then there was before (if there was none before, then it's even worse), and still you might get prosecuted by the International Criminal Courts (ICC).

So, let's make a comparison between the American Revolution and a particularly nasty war, the Vietnam War.

The Vietnam War lasted 116 months, and suffered the U.S around 215,000 casualties, counting those MIA. 1853 casualties per month.

There are several factors that could give reason as to why the death toll is so much higher; distance between involved countries, technological advancements between the two wars, and the duration of war.

Let's start whittling these down.

Both wars were carried out overseas, so the distance aspect may as well be taken out.

The duration vs. death toll ratio can be fixed using proportions (algebra, woooo). Making the durations equal, proportionally, the death toll of a 100-month long Vietnam War would've been... 100m = 86.2% of 116m --> 215,000d x .862 = 185,330d

That leaves only one factor that might explain the drastic increase in casualties: technology. Now, I know that the U.S was on two different 'sides' to those wars, being on the home front in the American Revolution, and a foreign assault force in 'Nam, but I'm pretty sure that didn't make much of a difference. If I somehow offend anyone with that assumption, I apologize,

So, today, a major war fueled by revolution would be devastating. It would take 100 months, if not done 'correctly' the toll would be enormous with the tech now at hand.

Revolution should come when the current conditions are either very critical (high impoverished population, high percentage of unemployment, stock/economic markets fail or crash every other breath) or are oppressive (be it racially, physically, sexually, alphabetically, etc.) in some way. Revolution should be a last resort, an effort to improve things, using them simply to vie for power is shameful. They're supposed to give enough power to someone to organize, to establish, to set a course, and then they blend in with the plan that was set forth.

If revolution is stirring, whomever takes it upon themselves to lead it had better have a good head on their shoulders.

Oh yes, it is very near. We're starting to see massive distrust in our government, and people are really growing at least one testicle and getting up and protesting. Now, all it will take is one charismatic leader, to set off such a movement. With violence.

These movements are occurring around the world, and can't really be stopped.

And last time America had massive distrust, as seen on this scale, 600,000 Americans died. The Civil War, or course, which wasn't too different from our current situation.

It's close, at least in America. It won't take much to set off rioting, and rioting often leads to bigger issues, even if suppressed.

These are dangerous times. We might not get a revolution, but we are certainly close.

lol too bad I'm in Japan, we no want revolution!

Well, I think people nowadays(mostly guys) are just too lazy for revolution. Besides, my country is having problem with racism, politics and racist politics. This country doesn't need another problem.

"Dangerous times", "This country doesn't need another problem", while both of these can be good descriptions of rioting and open rebellion, they are not completely accurate. A revolution, as I said in my previous post, can be a good thing. It can wipe the slate clean, re-work nations, and solve the problems that everyone insists it will only make worse.

Leave all possibilities open, if you truly want to see things improve.

In America I'm seeing the beginning signs of movement. This may just be the radicals such as the skin heads vs the New Black Panther Party reaching out for more recruits?

I don't think our current economic and political systems are any where near the fever pitch of the 1850-60's, leading up to the ACW. Americans aren't living under the same racial oppression and suppression. Americans are as near to equal in rights, both civil and militarily than ever in human history.
The Commissioner's of the Secession of America in late 1860-1861 were wrong in their fears of the same fate happening to southern whites as what happened in Haiti following the French Revolution. There was no mass murdering of whites following the emancipation of slaves in America.
One hundred years later, America suffered through the race riots and the Vietnam War riots and then the dust settled and life went on.
One hundred-fifty years later, today, we are seeing intensified tension and posturing in America but nothing compared to the past violence.

Governments of the past have always dictated what the media will and will not say, display, comment on, etc. I know that Iran is still this way and perhaps other countries of the world are this way but with the internet I would think it's very hard for the US Government to get away with suppressing the media for very long unless the military/pentagon says to.