ForumsThe TavernHow Much Time?

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TheGr8est
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TheGr8est
704 posts
Nomad

how much time will it take AG to get to 2 million users?
will we get to AG3 first?
How much people (in a percentage) are active?

  • 22 Replies
Gantic
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Gantic
11,892 posts
King

In less than 10 months, Gantic will have an awesomness equivalent to 2000 kiloomgs. That is assuming awesomeness is not lost in the transition to AG3. There are no error bars, as quite frankly, I don't know how to apply them to exponential functions.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v226/blackcairn/AG/GantAwesome.png

Legion1350
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Legion1350
5,366 posts
Nomad

I have no idea, but I bet AGv3 will come out sooner. It doesn't seem like there's much else to do with AGv3 development.

Gantic, I need one of those charts for myself.

zakyman
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zakyman
1,631 posts
Peasant

I think that after the launch of AG3, more people will be interested. So maybe we will get to 2 mil. by November if we're lucky.

knight_34
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knight_34
13,821 posts
Farmer

Or we could just take a couple of lucky guesses. I think if it took 3 years to make 1,000,000 users, it should take 1 and a half years to get to 2,000,000. Because of popularity.


I prefer extrapolation. Though really, for the sake of guessing I would say early next year.

Here's a novel idea: Why doesn't someone just chart the growth of Armor Games userbase and extrapolate from the trend of the data to find out how long might take to reach 2000000 users? Seems much more useful than conjecture.


The only dilemma I can think of is how inconsistent the trends seem to be. I mean, it took two years for the first 500k to be reached. The time it took for the second 500k was halved. Eh, in the end few of those people actually come here.. to the forums.
TheGr8est
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TheGr8est
704 posts
Nomad

you have to put into consideration that the more people there are on AG, the more popular it gets which results in more people joining per day.

DarkGamer99
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DarkGamer99
608 posts
Nomad

Yes But we also need to be aware that these new people that join need to be very active. Or these people that come once will just be filling up the server.

Gantic
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Gantic
11,892 posts
King

The only dilemma I can think of is how inconsistent the trends seem to be. I mean, it took two years for the first 500k to be reached. The time it took for the second 500k was halved. Eh, in the end few of those people actually come here.. to the forums.


The R-squared value of the chart of the Awesomness of Gantic over Time is .9901! What does that mean? Obviously it's not 100% accurate (because I didn't have 100 kiloomgs when I first joined) but it's pretty darn accurate and the Rapture is coming March 15, 2012 (+/- 1 day)!

Also, that's not a dilemma.

If I am wrong and we haven't even gotten to 2 million users yet, then I'll just say we reached there spiritually because accounts were deleted. Of course, I expect it to be a bit sooner than March 15th, because I'm willing to be that the Last Stand 3 and other super popular games will be released, slightly accelerating user growth. Also, summer is coming.
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