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Forums → WEPR → Brexit and the consequences...thoughts?
As you are probably aware, the British Exit from the EU is a reality. With a scenario that is going to take place during the next 2 years, politicians, analysts and pretty much everyone else talks about a nightmare.
First of all, David Cameron is now resigning. Despite his earlier statement, in which he swore not to resign, regardless of the result of the referendum, his resignation is now more or less a fact.
The British pound is already at the lowest point since 1985 in comparison to the USD and the yen
The 'hole' left in the EU due to the British exit now has to be covered by the other member nations of the EU. I do not know about the direct repercussions in other countries but, Greece may have to offer an amount increased by 150 million Euros per year.
Additionally, Scotland and Northern Ireland are now re-examining the situation, considering leaving the UK. I do not know about the Welsh though.
Politicians in France and Italy also ask for this referendum to occur in their countries as well.
The leaders of the EU are meeting to assess the damage and put emergency plans in motion but all in all, the results of this are considered to be dire for all other member nations in the EU
What are your thoughts on this?
(P.S. Also, anyone who follows British politics more closely may officially consider themselves encouraged to drop by this thread and post his/her opinion I'd like to hear your thoughts on this more than anyone)
- 34 Replies
You know, this has got me thinking...why do people honestly vote against what they actually intend, as a form of protest? One of my old teachers did it (Luckily it didn't affect the result as not many did the silly stunt like she did!), and I think it's immensely foolish!
Anyway the referendum is not legally binding, but it'll take a politician with huge cajones to start that ball rolling. Now perhaps if the Bregret campaign starts to gain momentum....
It was a foolish move , even tho im not british i think they should've have thought about the economy drop they'll get , if this keeps going like it's now Britain will experience a huge economic depression , hope it won't happen but they do need to do somehting
I personaly, and pretty much everybody else in my homeland (Serbia), don't like EU, mostly because they are blackmailing us with requirements for joining them. I was kinda happy since British people voted for Brexit. It seemed as totaly legit move to do, when you see what can they do now.
Instead of paying 135 million pounds every year to EU, they can use it for their own purposses. They finaly got rid of whole bunch of useless rules and conditions that EU forced uppon them. The best example is probably the one mentioned in John Oliver's "Last Week Tonight" where he said, I quote: "Europe Union has 135 rules about pillows, for example, but, most of them don't even have anything to do with real pillows, like this one, which is for pillow shaped cereal. "
They can also employ more British people, and less Romanian, Hungarian, German and other EU member countries' peole.
With a scenario that is going to take place during the next 2 years, politicians, analysts and pretty much everyone else talks about a nightmare.
That deppends where. In Serbia, credits in Swiss franks have grown up, probably because EU didn't get those 135 million pounds I mentioned before.
You shouldn't forget that while every member pays a certain sum to the common pool, they also get subsidies for many things; without those, many smaller farmers or business holders may struggle to survive.
As for the regulations, yes there are a lot, maybe some too many, but at least they allow for better trade and exchange between EU members. Now that the UK has decided to leave, they will have to re-negotiate every agreement. British politicians had managed to barter some extra perks for the UK while in the EU (like getting a bit more money back than they normally would); I doubt they'll be able to keep them now.
As for foreign employees, often those are highly educated or trained people that found a job thanks to exchange programs like Erasmus. Even untrained foreign employees can be valuable to fill vacant spots; there's a reason why Merkel kept Germany open to asylum seekers, because they needed the labour. On the other hand British people will have it harder to go study/work abroad. So I'm not really sure that this is a positive thing.
135 million pounds every year
I am pretty sure that it is £350 million per week which, even excluding subsidies, is very little compared to other things.
The entire "Brexit" was a farce from the beginning, running on a platform of almost 100% lies, channeling propaganda and fear tactics towards the less educated and older population to swing the vote in their favor. As it has been stated by Leave MP's the money saved from leaving the EU will be used on, "Schools, the NHS, or whatever." Mere hours later Nigel Farage was quoted in saying this. Relying on a outdated nationalism based on a colonial structure that doesn't even exist anymore as a basis for their campaigns is unjust and simply wrong.
It has caused massive amounts of racial outbursts and violence within the country itself, where, in one locality, Polish residence had laminated notes telling them to leave the country pushed through their letter boxes. Racial attacks have been reported to have been increasing. It has caused a divide between Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales. Causing people to call for another referendum to leave the UK in Scotland, and Northern Ireland to consider secession with the ROI. The ironic thing is that the leave campaigners believed this would bring the UK closer together. Leave campaigners told the Scottish that nobody would take them if they left the UK however both the EU and the Nordic states to extend an olive branch to them if the decided to leave.
Many people have criticized the elderly vote in the referendum, saying they have caused huge problems for the upcoming generations as they will not have to deal with the repercussions of the result. The majority of the young voters voted to remain in the EU. 18-24 year olds 60% stay, 20% leave, 20% undecided, 65+ 34% stay, 60% leave, 6% undecided. The fact that most of the campaigns were focused heavily on the older population rather then the younger generation, who will have to deal with the storm on the horizon.
Their currency has dropped lower then it had been between March 1985 and December 1989, where it fluctuated between 1.03 and 1.70 USD causing waves in the global economy. The money that they were giving to the EU, almost half of it was given back in subsidies and rebates. The money they made from free travel and open boarders far exceeded this donation. 57% of Britons trade is with the EU which is going to massively interrupted.
Many British scientists believe that this exit has been extremely detrimental to the scientific community in England. This has caused many scientists to flee the country to stay in the EU.
On the subject of the NHS, 10% of all the doctors who are in the NHS are from the EU. So they will have to pay less quality doctors and surgeons more money causing even more strain on the NHS as a whole.
There was under 75% turn out to vote. It was a 2% difference. Meaning that if this referendum comes around again the result could be completely opposite.
The EU also ensures that beaches are kept in some good environmental state, before English beaches were disgustingly polluted causing the spread of infections throughout communities surrounding the coastline. They also implement laws to ensure the air of the UK remained at a high quality which has stopped the similar fate that has befallen China and their massive smog problems, which cause unimaginable health problems for the people of China. They also have laws that ensure the high qualities of goods that are produced in Briton. People will have to now have a visa to travel to the UK in any measure which is going to curb holiday goers and the such. Farm subsidies will be cut from the British economy, crushing the farmers of the isle, causing great swathes of land to become useless. The open market ensured that monopolies were almost impossible to be created creating a safe market. Human rights are also far better protected when you have multiple other countries ensuring that they stay in check. ALSO, the sharing of information between security and police establishments throughout Europe has created a much safer world to live in. And finally, the reason the EU was founded in the first place, it's brought a great time of peace to the region. This made sure countries in the EU didn't have to spend as much money on their military as they could rely on their neighbors aid in times of war.
I'm not sure what happened between Serbia and the EU, but from my outlook the Eu has done more good then bad in this world and the UK leaving was a terrible thing.
Well, but if Serbia is the country requesting to join, shouldn't the EU have the power to decide on the requirements it wishes to set? Especially after the fiasco with some of the newer members.
One thing seems rather certain....the Leave campaign leaders had no concrete road map after a win, and don't seem to have expected a win. Now they're scrambling for cover.
As for the regulations, yes there are a lot, maybe some too many, but at least they allow for better trade and exchange between EU members.
Well, you know. People hear the jokes about EU regulations on the sale of cabbage (which is, BTW, a myth) and they immediately think all the regulations are just an additional burden with no real value. And then they vote leave.
I have heard someone make two strong arguments that would speak against Scottish independence. First, England supports Scotland financially; without that money, even with what the EU would pay, Scotland likely would have to cut a lot of expenses, or at least find itself in a less stable financial situation. It was even compared to a potential situation alike that of Greece.
Second, joining the EU independently of England would mean they would have to adopt the Euro currency, and Scots are not likely to accept that.
The Scots are more likely to join with the EU then to stay with England. When it comes to changing their cash the Euro is coming out on top making it a much more viable alt to the pound sterling. When it comes to their economy they have massive deposits of raw materials, specifically, oil. The amount of oil that is within Scottish boarders would be able to support them economically for the short term definitely. The long term comes down to them, I haven't read into what they could do in the long term though, so I can't speak on that myself.
I've just read that according to a statement in Brussels, English may stop being the EU's official language now that the UK is making preparations to leave. The source is in Greek though.
According to the article, such a move would possibly be met with criticism, especially by the Irish, because it would further reduce the influence of London over the continent (I think).
Though the spokesperson stated that practically, little will change even if they go through with it, one cannot deny the symbolism behind this move.
A few days after the UK voted Leave, the English football team left the Euros. HAHA
I have heard someone make two strong arguments that would speak against Scottish independence.
There are many more arguments. Anyway, Scotland voted to stay as part of the UK. The UK voted to leave the EU. The country, as a whole, voted for that and that is how it is. London has a higher population than Scotland and both voted to remain more than to leave, but they are still parts of a whole country.
@Swarmlord2 Scotland is going to vote again for independence, and if Scotland becomes an independ countr, it will stay in EU.
For now, the UK hasn't officially notified the EU of its intention to initiate the negotiations. In clear, it remains in the EU as long as it doesn't invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.
Right now, the problem is when to do so. Some call for immediate action, others want to take it slow - within the UK but also within the EU. I understand that doing it fast will calm certain people because the uncertainty may do more harm than good, politically and economically. On the other hand, there are those wanting to re-vote, and if Britons re-vote before article 50 is invoked, the UK may still decide to remain. It's probably unlikely, but theoretically possible.
This also means that Scotland should at least wait until the procedure is officially started. It doesn't make sense to vote about independence before that.
I'm just wondering why Her Majesty doesn't pull the brake. I mean sure, the royal family is purely representative and has absolutely no political powers, but to risk losing their territories and titles in Scotland? That seems like almost as much of a historical event as the Brexit itself
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