It's a well-known fact by now - North Korea has (a) nuclear weapon(s) and the rocket technology to fire their nuke(s) as far as Alaska. No matter how many warheads Kim Jong Il has under his control, it's blatantly obvious that he wants more nukes. This, and the latest military escalation by North Korea, seem to be pointing in only one direction - a Second Korean War. No matter how far off another armed conflict is, the stage is set for the war of the century.
Complicating things is China. Their close economic ties to the US, coupled with their "disowning" the Communist son that they "gave birth" to, means that North Korea would probably not get backing from the most populous country on earth, as they did last time.
As I type this, the destroyer USS John McCain is on an intercept course with a North Korean shipping vessel believed to contain nuclear warhead making supplies. The destroyer has a directive, given by the UN, to board the vessel if it makes a break for North Korea. If the ship indeed contains supplies for making nuclear warheads, that will be a direct violation to UN sanctions, only escalating the prospect of an armed conflict.
Before World War 1, many pundits were warning the world of the "owder keg" that was Europe. When the "spark" of the assassination of Archduke Francis Ferdinand and his wife started the flame, the whole continent fell into one of the bloodiest wars known to man.
Almost a century later, there is a new "owder keg" for the 21st century, and it's not Iraq or Afghanistan or even Iran. In fact, it's thousands of miles away from the middle east. It's North Korea. One more spark, and we'll have a Second Korean War.
(Opinions section) (When the Second Korean War does begin, I fear that the regular US armed forces, which will surely make up the lion's share of the UN troops, will not suffice. There is a good chance that whoever the president is at that time will reinstate the draft - and I'm sure to be on that list.)
There's been a millions sparks there, and no war has come. Kim Jong-il is using the nukes for aid. Here's what happens:
1. NK is very poor and doesn't produce enough food to feed its population. 2. NK builds nukes. 3. The US (Clinton and Bush to be exact) tell NK to stop building nukes in exchange for food. 4. NK stops building nukes, gets food. 5. Food runs out. 6. Repeat.
Kim is crazy, but not crazy enough to start a war with South Korea. He and his nation would be obliterated within hours if he tried anything, and he knows it. He just uses his nukes to get aid, and show off to his people.
Well, it's a lot different than Iraq in that Kim Jong Il seems to actually want to get the UN mad, testing to waters per se. The North Korean government has said for decades that they want to overthrow Seoul once and for all - and the North Korean war beast is making the same noise that it made some 50 years ago, before the first Korean War. But this time, it's worse, as they have nukes.
North Korea is a special case. Many of the other dictatorships in the world perform a kind of "quiet defiance" - they thrive by going under the radar. The best analogy to today's North Korea is the Cuban Missile Crisis. We know exactly what North Korea is doing, and that's the scary part. What North Korea is doing as of now is probably just a test, just like what Hitler did during the 1930's. Germany annexed more and more land and let the Nazi beast grow and didn't do anything until most of Europe was under Hitler's hand. This is the test, and by the time the UN does anything, it will be too late. We will have on our hands another Korean War on a scale which would make the first conflict in Korea look like a water gun fight.
[sarcasm]Right... And Iran isn't developing nukes to destroy Israel, which the Ayatollah (supreme leader) of Iran reiterated yesterday in a speech he gave against the protesters. They just want us to like them.[/sarcasm]
We will have on our hands another Korean War on a scale which would make the first conflict in Korea look like a water gun fight
.
Oh, bullshit. If the United States saw a true threat rising, North Korea would be glass in an instant. A lot of the threats lately have been amongst turmoil about who Kim Jong Il's successor will be. In chaotic times, a show of force is the best way to maintain control. It's the same as a sheriff getting attention in a rioting bar by shooting his gun off.
turmoil about who Kim Jong Il's successor will be.
Actually, Kim Jong Il has already named his son, Kim Il Song, as his successor.
If the United States saw a true threat rising, North Korea would be glass in an instant.
That's exactly what British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain said about Hitler when he annexed the Rhineland. And my greatest fear in this whole conflict is that nobody will see it until it's too late.
Actually, Kim Jong Il has already named his son, Kim Il Song, as his successor.
Yeah, after launching the nuclear tests.
That's exactly what British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain said about Hitler when he annexed the Rhineland. And my greatest fear in this whole conflict is that nobody will see it until it's too late.
I guess it's a good thing Kim Jong Il isn't invading Japan, China, South Korea, and Laos then. Although I can see why you would tie connections between the two leaders, the situations are completely different.
For one thing, our nuclear weapons are much, much, more powerful and able to go over much longer distances than those North Korea may possess. In addition to this, Japan and South Korea both have grudges and are poised to strike immediately if North Korea crosses the line.
That's exactly what British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain said about Hitler when he annexed the Rhineland. And my greatest fear in this whole conflict is that nobody will see it until it's too late.
Not really. Britain was not ready for war and France wasn't confident on moving on Germany, mainly because they didn't know how weak the Wermacht really was. Like Zootsuit said, completely different.
No. This was months ago, far before the nuclear tests.
No, it wasn't. Otherwise none of this testing would have occurred.
Yes, but by then, it will be too late.
I highly doubt that. Anti-missile technology exists, and I have no doubt that Japan, South Korea, and the countries within North Korea's potential range of nuclear armaments have been preparing for such an event for decades.
You keep talking about North Korea "crossing the line". My point is, by the time they do cross that line(and they have been getting closer and closer to that line every day), the war will already have started.
It took the invasion of Poland to get the English and French to wake up and smell the gunpowder. I only hope that it won't take the invasion of South Korea for the UN to do the same.
No, it wasn't. Otherwise none of this testing would have occurred.
If it wasn't officially noted, it was made blatantly obvious when the North Korean elections last fall had Kim Il Song running against his father - the first time there were two names on the ticket since Kim Jong Il inherited the throne from his father.
You keep talking about North Korea "crossing the line".
As far as I can tell, most of North Korea's military might is based on it's nuclear arms programs. If they're going to do anything at all, they will launch a missile targeting cities in Japan or South Korea.
Why? Because they're the closest targets, and their missiles with the longest ranges can only reach Guam and the Aleutian Islands.
I think it's safe to say that both South Korea and Japan have better technological capabilities than North Korea, and thus would be able to deal with any sort of nuclear threat that was launched.
This will not only be the Second Korean War, but it will also be the start of WW3. If the Iraq War is not solved by the beginning of this war I am afraid that our forces will be spread to thin and we won't be able to fight a war on two fronts. This will then cause us to ask for aid in defeating NK. The President at this time will probably reinstate the draft as the OP said.
Also, just as the "eace" brokered after WWI basically guaranteed a WWII, the cease-fire brokered between North and South Korea left both sides unhappy, and setup a kind of "mini Cold War", focused along the 10-mile-wide demilitarized zone.
