I went on Yahoo! on saw an article that said there is going to be a super storm hitting California soon... It also mentioned it would last for more than 40 days and dump 10 feet of water on the state. With winds of up to 125 miles per hour. ONE TWO FIVE.
Anyways, tell me what you think guys. Do you think it's possible or just a fake? I'm really wondering about this since I live in California. ~WorstSniper
This "Superstorm" does appear to be a possibility. But an earthquake massive enough to separate California from the continental US is also a possibility. That certainly doesn't mean that either event will actually obtain. There are two aspects to this report: 1) Storms like this have happened in the past (as noted by the article). 2) There is a computer model under which the conditions are right for this particular storm to form.
As for (1), the conclusion is based on induction. Let's pretend we knew nothing about the solar system - all we knew is that the sun rises on a regular basis. So based on the fact that the sun has risen regularly for as long as you've been alive, you can use induction to conclude that the sun will rise tomorrow. It's not guaranteed, but the induction in this case is a strong one. As for the storm, it seems to hit every so often - recurring every 150 to 400 years. And the article cites 7 instances of such a storm over the past 2000 years or so. Clearly, the inference here is not as strong as in the sun rise example.
There's another point here, as well. In the sun rise example, we actually have knowledge of the solar system and of Earth's movement therein. So we can accurately predict sunrises (just look in your local newspaper for the forecast). This is no longer an inductive inference, but a causal one. The earth's rotation causes the sun to rise, which gives us tremendous accuracy in making predictions. For the storm, there is no causal link. We have no way of predicting when (or even if) these particular factors would come together to make this torrential storm.
As for (2), these researchers have generated 1 computer model that shows this level of destruction. That's 1 computer model out of the literally thousands of different possibilities. It's saying that if conditions w,x,y, and z obtain, then this event will happen. But we have no reason to think that those conditions would obtain at the same time or the statistical probability that the would. The article says, "Such a superstorm is hypothetical but not improbable, climate researchers warn." But I think the use of the word "improbable" here is misleading. One interpretation of something's being improbable is that the chances of it happening are less than 50 percent. But clearly, this isn't what they mean. There's no way this storm has a probability higher than 50 percent. What they likely mean is that the probability of this happening is "statistically significant." That's just a fancy way of saying that it's really, really, really low, but not altogether impossible. There are some events that could possible occur, but their probability is so low that we say they're improbable and don't really regard them in our possible state of affairs. But this kind of probability could be as low as .00001.
I read the report the article linked to, and it was extremely unhelpful. It certainly wasn't a scientific report. That makes me even more skeptical about these results. I would bet that there's really no way to get an actual probability on an event like this. Which makes the claim that it's "not improbable" even more suspect.
In short: I wouldn't go out and invest in a paddle boat just yet.
That is a ridiculous amount of power, but I agree with Moe, the rate at which it happens appears to be highly sporadic, so while it may happen, there's also a good chance that it won't.
Slow news week, eh? Even the BBC has one of their main stories as: "Police say Jo Yeates did not eat pizza." Yes, a murdered, hot white girl did not eat pizza before she died like originally thought, so it's news.
When the news is bad, that's when the fear-mongering about super-storms, asteroids, and freak tidal waves pop up.
