this tread is about the statistics and guesing. even if you support by ideaoligy one of the side, its about what you think will happen, not what you hope or want to. so "Israel people are braver" "the iranian have the right to destroy israel" - Out, "the IDF as prove himself useful and has the tools for the job" "Iran have a strong anti-air defence system" - In.
so guys, do you think that an attack in Iran by Israel will stop the Developing of an atomic bomb by Iran, will only slow it or will do nothing at all? do you think that the damage in the home front Will be worth it or will cost too many lives and damage? and - does Israel need to wait for USA to interfere or Israel need to do it by herself, "befor its too late"?
firstly, my opinion is that Netanyau is trying to make a 'scene', make the problem be bigger than its actualy is. sure that an nuclear Iran is a treat to Israel, but attacing it will only give them an Excuse to attack us, saying that they are defending against us. even that the Israeli is a very strong army {one of the bests in the world}, the Iranian showd us that they are not to be disregard. they fought for 8 years against Iraq. so tehy wont break up easly, like some in Israel hope {like the eygeption army in 1967 - againt, i dont disregard them too. like i dont blame the french army in WW2}. and, unlike the US army, we wont get the support of the locals who oppose the regiem, as it will be easier to Hammedinijad to unit the Iranian against the 'zionists', while USA is more nautral to them. and, unlike USA, saudi-arabia as said that they wont let our airplanse to fly over her Territory and will shoot them if they will. afcors they will never do this to USA army.
so, i think that we {Israel} need to let USA make the move, maybe help as we can, and not do it ourself. not because of cowardness or that we are affraid, but because of the fact that the USA army is much much stronger and have a better chanses to sucssed, while the Israeli army has less chance to gain support inside Iran and to defeat Iran befor a devisteted rocket barrage on us.
nicho, you are taking these groups far too seriusly then they actualy are.
1 - the gush emunime guys - most of them aare just people who came there because of the low costs of rents and prices {as a place close to tel-aviv the prices are getting higher}. the little group n them, these who vandalaise. is just some crazy teens, mostly run away from there family {cant find an englih version of an article in 'yediut aharonot', about mothers for teens like them. these teens dont talk to them, and one, when driving to take her son back, these crazy kids throw stones at here car so she will go away}. most of them, when they grow up, get less fanatics. and the major of the Israelis dont like them too. and the settlers. these peoples dont "shoot to kill". yes, some of them have a light finger on the trigger, but they are not 'cowboys-indians'. there are much less cases of murdures in a year then you think. mostly none actualy.
i do agree with you that if a group of them will take over Israel, they will might agree to nuke everyone "to bring the messaih" or something, and if you will look Carefully, you will find people who will agrre to bomb gazza iran and whoever else. but thank god they are very very very few. dont let every chiuaua make you think that he is a Rottweiler.
2 - the Radical orthodox jewish groups - as any nation, we have some radical religios groups too. they dont pay taxes, they dont work and they dont recruit to the army has everyone else do [except most of the arab afcours]}. the ones you are talking about is 'sha"s' and etc. they dont even show in there Election Platform. they talk about religios laws, social laws adn stuff. mostly, they have nothing to do with military stuff.
as long as we, the 'hilonim'- the unreligios {not neccesery atheist troughe} rule Israel, there will be no holocust to the arabs. and dont worry, the groups you are so scary off are a minority. a very small one. and i hope, as a one who dream to run into politics, that this will be kept that way - Israel as a modern, 'western' democratic, socialistic and Secular.
I dont claim them to be a threat now; what I do see and what is a trend is The demographic time bomb. Analysts do predict that in the years to come this will be much more of a problem then it is today. Its just a doomsday scenario and one that is quite realistic.
I do not think Israel would attack Iran because they might develop a nuke. Partially because nukes are useless, and the only reason to have them is to make sure someone doesn't nuke you. Because if we wanted to, we could turn quite a few nations into parking lots. (and I don't mean nations like the Vatican and Liechtenstein)
nicho, i am affraid that i compeletly agree with you. Not so far from now, Israel will be ruled by these orthodox gruops. but dont be affraid, they dont realy care about Israel or the arab-israeli conflict. they just want to live ther life, without paying taxes or do anythig. now they can, because the gov' let them [we even give them money], and jewish peoples from usa who donate them money, most even dont know what for.
and i agree with the
Nukes aren't useless; they're a good diplomatic leverage as Pyongyang has shown adroitly.
. in the cold war, usa and ussr had thousands of bombs each. this amount can make the earth a wasteland wher no one can live for houndreds of thousends of years. its just a way to show your power, and make sure that no one will dare do make you despreate. in 1973, there are rumors that there was a plan, called 'simson', after the story of simson, who destroied a paleshtinian temple, killing all the leaders who was inside it and himselft, yelling "so my sol will die with pl****ies" {sorry for bad transaltion}. it was sayed that if the arabs armies will get to jerusalem, we will nuke them all. i am not sure if it was going to happen or not, but that is just an rxmple for the use of a nuke.
a nuke is not a tactical wepone. yes, its not effective against armies, but lets just say - no army will keep fighting when he know that his capital or a big city is no more. its a huge damage to the moral, adn a thing that can paralize a nation.
and here is a new question - does the Israeli media {or the media at general} discued that too much? isnt that a thing that need to Remain classified, and be discussed by the leaders of the nations? one of the best things {or worst} about Israel is its media. the reporters say whatever the want, publish everything. there are almost none Censorship. and this topic is all over the media. reportes Discuss abut it in the radio, TV hosts show diagrames and photoes and there Explanations by intellectuals all over the Newspapers. is it good that the people can, as wierd as it might sound - to control there Government? sure, this is what democracy is all about, but where are the lines? a man can vote, but after it and until the next elections he is no one, or the common man need to stay out of classified subjects, that he doesent have the knowledge to know all the Details, even if they can change his life compeletly?
in 1973, there are rumors that there was a plan, called 'simson', after the story of simson, who destroied a paleshtinian temple, killing all the leaders who was inside it and himselft, yelling "so my sol will die with pl****ies" {sorry for bad transaltion}. it was sayed that if the arabs armies will get to jerusalem, we will nuke them all. i am not sure if it was going to happen or not, but that is just an rxmple for the use of a nuke.
danielo, I think you're talking about the Samson Option which is Israel's retaliation plan against nuclear warfare.
The media question is not just an issue pertinent to Israel. We see this worldwide, we are experiencing a surge of information from all sources, which educates or deludes people depending on their level of critical thinking. It's one more stage in the rise and empowerment of the so called Fourth Estate. Personally I think it's necessary for a democracy to mature and remain healthy. An educated and informed populace is a most for democracies to function well; yet this comes at the trade off of politicians having to bow to political pressure from activist. A balance needs to be achieved.
I think stopping nuclear weapons in the first place is good, but it's slightly unfair that U.S. currently host the only known nuclear weapon source that works
Israel or USA will rely on spying/assassination against Iran not direct/expose attack on it because they can still talk and the possibility of Iran making nukes are possible but not fast
its only delay the bomb, not stopping it. even if there economy will be comepletly devastated, they will keep making it, because this is will be there only way to win. all the others ways are light surrender. if haminnai said that they will win, he cant "wait, nvm". he have to show his people that he won. and thats why its getting harder and harder to stop it by talking. and even if they will agree, who say they will just shut down all there Nuclear reactors? again, its only a shot {or long} delay, but there will be still a treat in it. the problme is the regiem, not the Nuclear reactors itself. and israel cant take off that regiem. not by herself anyway.
Nicho, MAD only applies when both groups are ruled by reason and rationality. When both countries want what's best for their citizens, than neither will use nuclear force against each other. However Iran doesn't fall under that category. They are a theocracy, and do not necessarily want what's best for Iranians as long as they get their way with destroying Israel.
