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zombieslayer
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zombieslayer
94 posts
Nomad

i dont beleive in global warming because i think that it is so gradual that by the time it is dangerous the next ice age will counter act it

Does any one else have any views or opinions about that?

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xfirealchemistx
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xfirealchemistx
370 posts
Nomad

The temperature of the earth has remained relatively steady for about 1800 years. Then we get the industrial revolution, start emitting vast amounts of C02 and other gases into the atmosphere and it jumps up like never seen before in earth's history.


How do you know the temperature was steady for 1800 years? the most effective global temperature readings didn't start until 1979.
NEP
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NEP
1 posts
Nomad

How do you know the temperature was steady for 1800 years? the most effective global temperature readings didn't start until 1979.


Thats right.

I think the global warming is in only a period of time where the global temperature rises. After the global warming there will be a cooling again.
FireflyIV
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FireflyIV
3,224 posts
Nomad

How do you know the temperature was steady for 1800 years? the most effective global temperature readings didn't start until 1979.


Ice samples taken from drillings in Antarctica enable scientists to discern the temperature of given time periods from the various contents of the ice. It's a very accurate method.
Pixie214
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Pixie214
5,838 posts
Peasant

FireflyIV your graph shows how started to increase above the average from the indistrial revolution onwards. Why does the graph change from the "northern hemnishere" temps to "global" temps at 1861.


nb. This is not an argument just a question I was pondering.

Carlie
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Carlie
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Blacksmith

How do you know the temperature was steady for 1800 years? the most effective global temperature readings didn't start until 1979.

As Firefly mentioned, there are ice core samples that can give us accurate readings. There are also many other methods of inferring paleoclimates. I just did this for my senior thesis, so I will give you a mouthful about sediment dating ;-)

As sediments deposit on land and in ocean basins, they build upon previous layers that have been deposited over time. This is called stratigraphy, an example of which you can see here:
http://www.rockymountainpaleontology.com/bridger/images/StratigraphyBridger5.jpg
Now, each one of these layers would represent a different time period. By taking a sediment core in an area, you can see these different layers in the sample and date them back to when they were deposited by which organisms are found in there. For example, in marine sediments you can look for organisms that used inorganic substances from the water column to precipitate their shells. One such type of organism, is called a foraminifera. They are tiny marine protists that precipitate their shells from the calcium carbonate and other substances found in the water. Here is what a fossil foraminifera looks like:
http://www.tufts.edu/as/wright_center/foram_activity/images/activity_images/figure_4_mod.jpg
My study species is very charismatic, am I right? ;-) So, what we can do now that we have collected these fossils, is run them through a mass spectrometer. This will tell us the exact proportions of different elemental isotopes that were present in the shell, thus giving us an accurate record of the seawater chemistry at the time. Now, the important element we want to pay attention to here for inferring temperature is oxygen. Isotopes of O16 and O18 are found in seawater in specific proportions to each other, depending on the temperature of the atmosphere. This is because when we have large oceanic ice sheets, they are formed with the lighter oxygen isotope, leaving a larger amount of the heavier isotope in the water. So the proportions that we find of these give us a measurement of the ice cover of earth during that time, and a reading of the temperature once the proportions are entered into an equation.

So basically, taking fossil samples and breaking them down for their oxygen isotope proportions tells us what the temperature of the ocean and therefor atmosphere was at the time.

The fossils that I looked at ranged from about 21,000-31,000 years ago. And we can go much farther back than that. So yes, we do have an effective global temperature record going back very far in time.

Probably more than you wanted to know ;-P

I think the global warming is in only a period of time where the global temperature rises.

Well, this is where we should be correcting the use of the term. We really should not call this phenomenon 'global warming', but 'global climate change'. Yes, as an average, the overall temperature of the globe is rising. However, it is also decreasing in certain areas. Global climate change can be better characterized by more extreme conditions like with the seasons. For example, in certain areas summers will become much hotter, while in other areas winter will become harsher and colder. It all is resulting in an overall warming of the atmosphere, but it does not affect every part of the earth in the same manner.
thisisnotanalt
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thisisnotanalt
9,821 posts
Farmer

Now, global warming isn't ALL from us-the Sun is going through a high-energy cycle right now, because the polar ice caps on Mars are also melting. However, other things like the hole in the ozone layer are NOT natural-we have no record anywhere of holes in the ozone layer naturally appearing. It isn't the changes of temperature that is caused from us quite as much as the actual damage to the climate, like landfills, killing soil, and hurting the ozone layer. Humans contributed to the change in temperature, but not as much as many people think we did.

pickleshack
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pickleshack
356 posts
Nomad

Has anyone else seen the line graphs of the rise in temperature over the past 100,000 years or so versus the rise in CO2. To my understanding, and I'm not a scientist yet (still another 2 years until bachelors, and 4 until my PHd), but it seems that the rise in CO2 seems to follow the rise in temperature. This was interesting to me, although I realize that those on either side of the issue can manipulate information to help their cause. I just think that whether or not global warming is caused by us, or it is just happening naturally, it is the normal human thing to evolve intellectually, thus technology advances, and it seems like the logical next step to create more efficient energy systems. As long as markets allow...I mean using corn, which is food by the way, to make a fuel is a little silly if you ask me.

Carlie
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Carlie
6,823 posts
Blacksmith

pickleshack, here is a good visual representation of what you are talking about with CO2 and temperature correlations:
http://ryanthibodaux.greenoptions.com/files/images/co2Temperature.gif

Zootsuit_riot
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Zootsuit_riot
1,523 posts
Nomad

C'mon Carlie, we all know the basic rule in statistics! Correlation is NOT causation.

DDX
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DDX
3,562 posts
Nomad

this is how global warming goes down with the creationists

well how do we get the 4 seasons?

wellll.
from the creationists point of view:

God is in a big kitchen called the "The Galaxy" and he puts his cake, called "earth" inside an oven and goes to sleep. So that is summer, and then the timer goes off at 3 months, and God sleeps through it he wakes up 6 months later, and the earth is blistering. He throws the "Earth" cake in the fridge. That is when it gets cold and there is winter. The cycle starts all over again. Sometimes for instance a few hundred million years ago, God forgot to take the cake out of the fridge and put it in the oven, that is the Ice age period. And for global warming, God has turn down the oven but is going to compensate his oversleeping, but little did he know! He will over sleep for a longggg period of time! and that is global warming in a creationist nutshell.

how is that for them Christian Creationist Young Earth believers

Carlie
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Carlie
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Blacksmith

C'mon Carlie, we all know the basic rule in statistics! Correlation is NOT causation.

You're right, it is not a direct causal effect. But it is a fact that increased CO2 in the atmosphere increases the amount of sunlight, and therefore heat, that is being reflected back to earth. This results in increased warming. And thus, ^CO2 --> ^Temp

So yep, in this case there is a pretty obvious relationship.

http://www.grida.no/climate/IPCC_tar/wg1/images/fig1-2.gif
The section on the right is the one in question, you can click on it if its too big. If there are more greenhouse gases the amount of radiation reflected back to earth is higher.
pickleshack
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pickleshack
356 posts
Nomad

Thank you for the graph and diagrams Carlie, that seems to clear it up.

Ninjacube
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Ninjacube
584 posts
Nomad

Ok, I'm going to pretend like Carlie is right (I don't think she is) and say that there is direct correlation between CO2 and temp. For those of you that don't know, CO2 is that stuff that lets trees breath and live thus let us live, but anyways.. I'm gonna put this in perspective for you here.

Humans breathe in and exhale at a rate of 5-8 liters per minute.
5% of exhaled gas is CO2.
Using an average of 6.5 liters per minute, each of us exhales 468 liters of CO2 each day.
One liter of CO2 weighs 0.0009 pounds so each person breathes 0.42 pounds of CO2 into the atmosphere each day.
World population as of July 2008 = 6.7 billion
So people of the world contribute 2.8 billion pounds of CO2 into the atmosphere each day.
Each year we, just humans, no animals, no coal plants, no farting cows, emit over 1 trillion pounds of CO2 to the atmosphere.

So, what should we do about it? Tax breathing? Kill the real sources of CO2? Or ask the UN?

thisisnotanalt
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thisisnotanalt
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Farmer

So, what should we do about it? Tax breathing? Kill the real sources of CO2? Or ask the UN?


The plants get rid of most, if not all of that. The introduction of extra emissions is what throws the system off balance. Natural emissions are balanced out by other organisms. That's why it doesn't matter if volcanoes emit more pollutants than us, because a certain amount is natural and can be taken care of. The introduction of more emissions that are UNnatural is where the problem lies.
Carlie
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Carlie
6,823 posts
Blacksmith

So, what should we do about it? Tax breathing? Kill the real sources of CO2? Or ask the UN?

No no no, you are taking it way out of perspective. Thisisnotanalt had a good explanation when he said this:
The introduction of more emissions that are UNnatural is where the problem lies. The introduction of extra emissions is what throws the system off balance.

The biggest problem is that we are burning large amount of fossil fuels and putting other pollutants into the atmosphere. The earth has carbon sinks (plants, soils, deep sea sediments, etc.) where is stores CO2 and keeps the balance. But this added CO2 is more than the earth has the capacity to absorb and maintain equilibrium. Which is why it is building up in the atmosphere. These carbon sinks are trying to absorb more, but there is only so much that they can take. This is why certain phenomenon like ocean acidification are starting to happen. The increased absorption of CO2 into seawater is pushing the pH lower to more acidic values, which is causing negative effects for calcifying and other organisms who cannot cope with this pH change.

If you wanted to be realistic here, you would have said that we should make changes on how our industry filters and produce their emissions. Or how cars can be made to be more efficient and reduce emissions. How people can use CFLs as opposed to other light bulbs.

I understand you are trying to make a point ninjacube, but seriously, be reasonable. I apologize if I can't take your arguments seriously when you are so sarcastic about it. Come back with an actual scientific argument with better facts, and then perhaps you will make some sense.

The plants get rid of most, if not all of that.

It's actually the ocean that stores most of it ;-)
http://delias.files.wordpress.com/2007/09/400px-carbon_cycle_diagram.jpg
Goooo ocean!
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