ForumsWEPRGlobal Warming is a Myth

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Sassin
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Sassin
170 posts
Nomad

I think global warming is a myth if anyone wants to prove me wrong try.

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FireflyIV
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FireflyIV
3,224 posts
Nomad

Co2 and global temperature have zero correlation, and are not a cause and effect.


Did you even glance at the rest of my post? Hint, the second graph down.

doesn't mean that they are correlational.


Firstly, look at the 2nd graph down, again. Secondly, yes it does mean they are correlational. That's pretty much a textbook example of a correlation. What it doesn't prove is causation, but that's what all the links are for.

That ins't really a flaw in the analogy. Telivison hasn't been around long, neither have emissions. Children as well as the Earth have been around much longer in comparison. Just because you find two statistics that match up (CO2 is up, more ice is melting, CO2 melts ice) doesn't mean that they are correlational.


It is a flaw in the analogy, because you imply that children have been watching television forever, when in fact emissions or 'television' in this case have only increased in any real sense since the industrial revolution.

Show me an experiment where a scientist created an environment with an atmosphere and then added CO2 and it got warmer and screwed around with the climate and organisms living on it. Oh wait, you can't. And this is why global warming can't really be proven, because all I hear are studies based on correlation not experiments that prove cause and effect.


Show me an experiment where a scientist created life, and watched it evolve over billions of years. Oh wait, you can't, which is why you can't prove evolution. Doesn't quite work does it?

If you apply the standards you do to global climate change to everything else, you can't really prove anything that can't be replicated in a lab, which really, isn't very much at all.

Noooo, I'm good with evolution.


There's a similar amount of proof for global climate change as there is for evolution. However all of it useless if you choose to ignore it, like you are with the former.

And the majority? Hmmmm, maybe there's a reason. Global Climate Change is "in" right now. Loads of $ out there for those willing to take it.I'm basically suggesting they've sold out =P


Yes, maybye there is a reason the majority advocate it? Maybye it's because it is by far the most plausible explanation there is. The reason these ideas survive is because they sustain intense scrutiny from their peers. Wonder why no alternate theories are in the news these days? Because all of them have been discredited by the rest of the scientific community, who found them to be lacking in any real substance or evidence, most of the data being collected from areas experiencing a cooling period (which is by the way part of climate change.)

As for the $ argument, that's pretty weak. Most of the data collected and gathered is by civil servants and independent scoentists. Then again, most of the scientists who came up with alternative theories worked for oil companies. I think you may have to re-evaluate who is profiting from this most.
FireflyIV
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FireflyIV
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Nomad

Alright give me time to read the above post which was not there a sec. ago before you try blow my arguments to hell and back =P


I only just read this post, and so replied assuming you'd read mine. In any case, I'd be interested to see what you come up with.
Graham
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Graham
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Nomad

Greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane and water vapour behave like a blanket around Earth


ahem... ever heard of earth's magnetic field?

Over the several hundred thousand years covered by the ice core record, the temperature changes were primarily driven by changes in the Earth's orbit around the Sun. Over this period, changes in temperature did drive changes in carbon dioxide (CO2).


it's man who caused that!

the problem is that most of your data goes from 1800 to 2005.

earth's been around longer than 200/400,000 yrs.
Graham
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Graham
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Nomad

Yes, maybye there is a reason the majority advocate it? Maybye it's because it is by far the most plausible explanation there is.


think of religions when you are reading this.

majority doesn't = right or the earth will still be thought of as flat. how do you know what the majority supports anyhow?
Graham
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Graham
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Nomad

Yes, maybye there is a reason the majority advocate it? Maybye it's because it is by far the most plausible explanation there is.


think of religions when you are reading this.

majority doesn't = right or the earth will still be thought of as flat. how do you know what the majority supports anyhow?
FireflyIV
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FireflyIV
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Nomad

ahem... ever heard of earth's magnetic field?


Yes. What's your point?

it's man who caused that!


You're missing the point. The former is primary and the latter is derivatory, or at least that's how it should work in a state of nature. Due to mankind's emissions, the former is derivatory and the lastter is primary.

the problem is that most of your data goes from 1800 to 2005.

earth's been around longer than 200/400,000 yrs.


Most of the temperature changes that have occured over the course of the Earth's history have done so at amuch slower pace - over tens or hundreds of thousands of years. Never before has the temperature been set to rise by more than 5C (when the Earth isn't in an Ice Age), and much less in a single century.
Blu3sBr0s
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Blu3sBr0s
1,287 posts
Nomad

The 1999 global temperature was 0.26 °C above the 1961-90 average, whereas 2007 was 0.37 °C above this average, 0.11 °C warmer than 1999.


A simple mathematical calculation of the temperature change over the latest decade (1998-2007) alone shows a continued warming of 0.1 °C per decade

[quote]The rise in global surface temperature has averaged more than 0.15 °C per decade since the mid-1970s.


hrm.

[/quote]C02 levels are higher than they should be in the natural cycle of human emissions


The assumption that humans have a natural cycle of emissions? What? Humans cannot be in anyway compared to what is natural because as far as we know we are unique in intelligence, but especially in activies, patterns, habits, etc.

Two graphs that say the same thing btw. And a graph on modeled and observed temperature? The projection and the model are simply laughable in my eyes.

[quote]If you apply the standards you do to global climate change to everything else, you can't really prove anything that can't be replicated in a lab, which really, isn't very much at all.


True...

Secondly, yes it does mean they are correlational. That's pretty much a textbook example of a correlation. What it doesn't prove is causation, but that's what all the links are for.


I think I got mixed up at some point in that post. But it does not prove cause and effect, and neither do the links. Merely stating cause and effect exists does not make it true. The only way to do that is with experiments, and as you said it cannot be done. We're really just going to have to trust with Climate Change, and that's a problem. Because there are negatives to trying to stop it, so if it doesn't exist, we don't want to deal with it.

And then you've got the positives of Global Warming. And yes I am saying Global warming again because the links you provided used the term.

More crops in high altitude areas. Higher rice yields. Fewer deaths from cold exposure. Record profits for Pharmaceutical industry. Arctic shortcut opening up. Green rainforests. Acces to Arctic oil. More mining in Greenland.

Geologic evidence shows an average level of CO2 of 1000 ppm over 600 million years.Research shows plants function most efficiently at 1000-2000 ppm. Commercial greenhouses use the information and are pumping C02 to these levels and achieve four times the yield with reduced water use. So you can now no longer say Global Warming is bad for food production.

I'm still not convinced of it's existence. But if I was, I would know it wasn't all doom and gloom.

I hope I'm not like Sassin and am hurting my side more than helping xD

Btw, I have a tendency to argue with sides I don't agree with on this site because it's more fun and difficult. But I will never tell you if I really believe in global warming or not =P
Blu3sBr0s
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Blu3sBr0s
1,287 posts
Nomad

Aw C'mon!!! Worst time for a quote failure

FireflyIV
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FireflyIV
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Nomad

think of religions when you are reading this.


Why? These are scientists we are talking about, specialists in this field, not uneducated masses of people. In addition, this is not a belief system, they have based these beliefs on empirical evidence, unlike theists, who simply cannot, because there is no evidence indicating the existence of a God.

majority doesn't = right or the earth will still be thought of as flat. how do you know what the majority supports anyhow?


That is because they had no reason to doubt what they believed to be true. Scientists now have access to a hell of a lot of data on the matter of global climate change. It is upon this data that scientists based their opinions, and as the vast majority of scientists believe it to be true, this leaves the 10% minority, most of whom are employed by oil companies conducting their own studies, which are instantly discredited by the unbiased majority.

How do I know? Because I read around the subject a lot.

@ BluesBros, I'll do my best to distinguish between the two posts.

The assumption that humans have a natural cycle of emissions? What? Humans cannot be in anyway compared to what is natural because as far as we know we are unique in intelligence, but especially in activies, patterns, habits, etc.


Why can we not be compared to things that are natural. Are you suggestion that we are unnatural? That we are artificial?

Two graphs that say the same thing btw. And a graph on modeled and observed temperature? The projection and the model are simply laughable in my eyes.


Please explain why? They are based upon current trends of emissions and their growth. They seem fairly solid to me.

Merely stating cause and effect exists does not make it true. The only way to do that is with experiments, and as you said it cannot be done.


Experiments are not the only way to prove a positive. Empirical evidence will suffice and on the subject of global climate change, we have that in abundance.

We're really just going to have to trust with Climate Change, and that's a problem. Because there are negatives to trying to stop it, so if it doesn't exist, we don't want to deal with it.


Even if it turns out not to exist (and I hope it doesn't), do you not think that as habitants of this Earth we have a duty to minimise the negative impact we have on the planet?

More crops in high altitude areas


Less crops in low altitude areas, effectively killing literally millions of subsistance farmers the world over. Not everyone has the luxury to be born up high.

Higher rice yields


Far less cereal crop yields. I hope you enjoy your rice. Also, say goodbye to cheap meat. With low cereal crop yields there won't be enough to feed the massive herds of livestock we in the West enjoy.

Fewer deaths from cold exposure


Most places where you're likely to die from exposure will stay fairly cold. Do remember that it's an average increase. Some places will get colder.

Record profits for Pharmaceutical industry.


Why's that a good thing? Also, record numbers of people will be exposed to Malaria, now that the climate is getting warmer. Apparently the UK will be swarming with mosquitos if the predictions are correct.

Acces to Arctic oil. More mining in Greenland.


It is illegal to mine on the poles. Although Greenland is fine. However the reduction in Arctic ice will mean the extinction of most animals living there, as well as a disruption of the surface currents which affect ecosystems wround the globe.

So you can now no longer say Global Warming is bad for food production.


As I implied before, it will be bad for certain foodstuffs, but be sure, say goodbye to your current lifestyle if the world average temperature increases.

I'm still not convinced of it's existence. But if I was, I would know it wasn't all doom and gloom.


Of course as a species we will adapt. I'm sure we'll have to be much more efficient and egalitarian with regards to our resources, however we will survive. What you haven't mentioned is the mass immigration that will have to be dealt with. Millions possibly 1 billion people will be displaced, either by flooding, or by desertification, and they have to go somewhere. Personally I don't think it's fair that rich industrialised nations that can afford to deal with the situation cause this crisis which then has a detrimental affect on the totally unprepared 3rd world.

I hope I'm not like Sassin and am hurting my side more than helping xD


I'd say so, but I am not convinced of your arguments. They have no real substance. It is mostly based on the assumption 'correlation does not equal causation' whixh is fine, but doesn't really apply to this problem because of the overhwlming amount of empirical evidence.

Btw, I have a tendency to argue with sides I don't agree with on this site because it's more fun and difficult. But I will never tell you if I really believe in global warming or not =P


I do sincerely hope you are playing Devil's Advocate and do believe in global climate change, or at least I hope I have convinced you of its existence.
Graham
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Graham
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Nomad

Most of the temperature changes that have occured over the course of the Earth's history have done so at amuch slower pace - over tens or hundreds of thousands of years. Never before has the temperature been set to rise by more than 5C (when the Earth isn't in an Ice Age), and much less in a single century.


gotta graph(evidence) for that?

The atmosphere of Mars contains 96.2% CO2.

Yes. What's your point?


ah nothing, just misinterpreted.

A small change in the temperature produces a HUGE change in the amount of energy emitted by every unit area of the object.
Graham
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Graham
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Nomad

Why? These are scientists we are talking about, specialists in this field, not uneducated masses of people. In addition, this is not a belief system, they have based these beliefs on empirical evidence, unlike theists, who simply cannot, because there is no evidence indicating the existence of a God.


i'd like to see a double blind procedure. empirical is simply observations.

which are instantly discredited by the unbiased majority.


quantitative is unbiased. qualitative is biased.
FireflyIV
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FireflyIV
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Nomad

gotta graph(evidence) for that?


Yes I do, but I can't be bothered getting it now. This is my last quick post before I log off.

The atmosphere of Mars contains 96.2% CO2.


Which is why it would be uninhabitable. Your point? Make no mistake, the Earth would be mostly devoid of life if it had the same atmospheric make-up as Mars.

A small change in the temperature produces a HUGE change in the amount of energy emitted by every unit area of the object.


Your point?
FireflyIV
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FireflyIV
3,224 posts
Nomad

i'd like to see a double blind procedure. empirical is simply observations.


quantitative is unbiased. qualitative is biased.


First off, we are dealing with quantitative data. Cold facts. They are notopen to interpretation, which is why a double blind procedure would be wholly unnecessary.
Graham
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Graham
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Nomad

which is why a double blind procedure would be wholly unnecessary.


you find things if you look for them.

Your point?


just some interesting sites i found.
Graham
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Graham
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Nomad

which is why a double blind procedure would be wholly unnecessary.


you find things if you look for them.

Your point?


just some interesting sites i found.
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