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Kevin4762
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Kevin4762
2,420 posts
Nomad

If you roll a die infinite times, is there a certainty of rolling the number one?

I don't know if this is a paradox or not, but if it is I would to claim credit to [urlhttp://forums.xgenstudios.com/showthread.php?214820-Existence-Non-existence-of-Human-Life/page2]this[/url] thread.

Now, if you roll a die infinite times, you are bound to roll a one, or are you? If you roll a die infinite times, then there is the chance of rolling everything but one, as "never rolling one" is a possibility.

There is no real debate, but I just want to see where this will go for a couple pages. I would just like to her what you think.

  • 24 Replies
howlett
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howlett
2,278 posts
Nomad

This happens to be your link. <-- I hope.

And, of course there is no certainty of getting the number one, if you roll a die infinity times, you might get infinity of the same number, it's extremely unlikely, however, it is not impossible.

iMogwai
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iMogwai
2,027 posts
Peasant

And, of course there is no certainty of getting the number one, if you roll a die infinity times, you might get infinity of the same number, it's extremely unlikely, however, it is not impossible.


The answer is not that simple. Seeing as how you never stop rolling, you cannot say you never roll a certain number, because, well, it is never decided. You cannot not roll a number, because you'll just keep doing it until you do. Even if you keep rolling a two, you'll never stop rolling, thus it's impossible to say you will never roll a one.
Kevin4762
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Kevin4762
2,420 posts
Nomad

The answer is not that simple. Seeing as how you never stop rolling, you cannot say you never roll a certain number, because, well, it is never decided. You cannot not roll a number, because you'll just keep doing it until you do. Even if you keep rolling a two, you'll never stop rolling, thus it's impossible to say you will never roll a one.


In the spirit of a devil's advocate, rolling a one is bound to happen. The law of large numbers will have to apply eventually.
Dragonblaze052
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Dragonblaze052
26,677 posts
Peasant

The Law of Large Numbers states that it will become more likely, but it will never be certain. On the other hand, it is innevitable a 1 must be rolled as even a loaded die would come up 1 eventually.

benman113
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benman113
329 posts
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The answer is not that simple. Seeing as how you never stop rolling, you cannot say you never roll a certain number, because, well, it is never decided. You cannot not roll a number, because you'll just keep doing it until you do. Even if you keep rolling a two, you'll never stop rolling, thus it's impossible to say you will never roll a one.

Well it's not possible to say you will either but you will probably roll atleast one one
Kevin4762
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Kevin4762
2,420 posts
Nomad

Change the name of the title back to Infinity. Infinity 1 doesn't make any sense at all, and if I were to write a number, I would want it to be written as "one."

Well it's not possible to say you will either but you will probably roll atleast one one


Yes, but if you are rolling an infinite amount of time, it is possible that you will never roll a one.

There is a 1 in 6 chance it might land on a 1 , I think.
[quote]

That doesn't prove anything. I can roll a billion times and never roll one.
Squidbears
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Squidbears
626 posts
Nomad

The answer is not that simple. Seeing as how you never stop rolling, you cannot say you never roll a certain number, because, well, it is never decided. You cannot not roll a number, because you'll just keep doing it until you do. Even if you keep rolling a two, you'll never stop rolling, thus it's impossible to say you will never roll a one.

urrghhh my brain

its possible... but unlikely :P
Freakenstein
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Freakenstein
9,503 posts
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If you roll a 6-sided die, wanting to get a 1, an infinite number of times, there is a 100% certainty that you will get a 1 at least once. Infinity is a theoretical number that cannot be reached--it is an endless number. An infinite number of times is a special case. An example would be the probability question "what is the chance of rolling a positive integer on a 6-sided die?". It is a 1/1 chance. If you roll an infinite number of times to try and roll a 1, it is a 1/1 chance. It is a possibility that you will not roll a one a dodecahedrillion-google times, but you WILL roll a one. It does not matter if it cannot be ultimately decided. With infinity, you WILL roll a one.

Kevin4762
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Kevin4762
2,420 posts
Nomad

its possible... but unlikely :P


How is it unlikely if you roll a million times? You should be bound to roll a one.
Kevin4762
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Kevin4762
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Nomad

If you roll a 6-sided die, wanting to get a 1, an infinite number of times, there is a 100% certainty that you will get a 1 at least once. Infinity is a theoretical number that cannot be reached--it is an endless number. An infinite number of times is a special case. An example would be the probability question "what is the chance of rolling a positive integer on a 6-sided die?". It is a 1/1 chance. If you roll an infinite number of times to try and roll a 1, it is a 1/1 chance. It is a possibility that you will not roll a one a dodecahedrillion-google times, but you WILL roll a one. It does not matter if it cannot be ultimately decided. With infinity, you WILL roll a one.


Infinity is endless, therefore you can roll the die a cajillion Brazilian trillion 99 million thousand billion hundred thousand million times, and never get one. You can can a three a billion times, a four a trillion times, and a five googolplex times and never get a one.

Now, why would that be?
Kevin4762
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Kevin4762
2,420 posts
Nomad

It is totally likely. A die has six choices on what to get. One out of six with infinite chances. Definitley.


What if you roll 6 infinite times?
BluePortal
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BluePortal
69 posts
Nomad

Infinity can be described when you are counting forever but are only up to 7 so I think it is possible.

If you think it is big numbers (1000000000000000000000000000000000000) then the chances are slim.

A very basic question.

Milos
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Milos
848 posts
Peasant

Chance of not getting 1 in a single roll is 5/6 = 0.83333
two rolls 25/36 = 0.69444
three rolls 125/216 = 0.5787
...
Infinite rolls lim(5/6)^n when n->inf = 0
So there is no chance of not rolling 1 in infinite ammount of attempts.

thestuntman
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thestuntman
303 posts
Nomad

This thread is kind of pointless. There is a zero chance of that happening (meaning 1 would have to come up), I just did the limit with the Poisson distribution. I would do binomial distributional as well but that would take too long. And Milos has the right idea, but that way of doing it is a little less graceful let's say.

thestuntman
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thestuntman
303 posts
Nomad

Wow I derped up my calculations. Brb doing it again.


Alright I redid it with Binomial distribution, and it worked out a lot easier this time. The number 1 would have to show up if you rolled the die an infinite number of times. Sorry for triple posting like this.
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