Forums → WEPR → Iran threatens to close the Straight of Hermuz
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if it does there goes one of our Great oil suppliers....
Again, it won't matter. Other members of OPEC will take over. They get more revenue from the sales than before, so it's good business for them.
It's a stone-cold. A bluff.
Iran is flexing and hoping to get attention... and who can blame them in the current climate. Negotiation should be the way forward, not cruise missles.
Iran is only an enemy in the eyes of precious few countries and despite what the Western world thinks of the regime/laws there, they should be doing everything possible to get round the table.
Recently Iranian people burnt out the British embassy and the government here did a stupid thing... they expelled Iranian diplomats. Why? The best people to help are the people of Iran who represent them here in UK.
Sod the oil situation, better to get an open dialogue with Iran and start to find some common ground. It shouldn't all be about the oil or what America wants from the situation.
Negotiation should be the way forward, not cruise missles.
Cruise missiles sure as hell move quite a bit faster...
Sod the oil situation, better to get an open dialogue with Iran and start to find some common ground
It's like trying to find common ground with a snail. The only common ground is the one you stand on.
Disagree, cruise missles may be faster in the short term, but long term a bt of negotiation now would save lives.
Common ground is easy to find if both sides are open to it, and from an outside perspective, the Iranians and Americans are as bad as each other. Both are posturing rather than thinking of ways to talk things out. There really doesn't have to be a conflict.
Disagree, cruise missles may be faster in the short term, but long term a bt of negotiation now would save lives.
Save lives? You act as if a few million really matters in the broader picture. When negotiating can take decades and Iran can have nukes, what happens then? We're screwed. We'll end up glassing them.
Common ground is easy to find if both sides are open to it,
That's the thing: Both sides are not. Neither side is. It's like when you have that one weasel in your class that you just can't stand. No matter how hard you try, you two just can't get along. Eventually it might turn to fists, but maybe it won't.
America is like this: "It's our way or the highway!"
Iran is like this: "**** you, you ain't our ruler!"
Save lives? You act as if a few million really matters in the broader picture. When negotiating can take decades and Iran can have nukes, what happens then? We're screwed. We'll end up glassing them.
Are you really suggesting that it is better to waste a million lives for the sake of posturing and bravado?
hat's the thing: Both sides are not. Neither side is. It's like when you have that one weasel in your class that you just can't stand. No matter how hard you try, you two just can't get along. Eventually it might turn to fists, but maybe it won't.
America is like this: "It's our way or the highway!"
Iran is like this: "**** you, you ain't our ruler!"
Scrub the last question, obviously you are. Thankfully you're not a diplomat.
There is a half way house to every situation, it is just a matter of finding it. It doesn't need to take decades, but even if it does, so what? Iran won't launch nuclear weapons because they don't have them, they have weapons grade plutonium, but no launch system. Even if they did have a launch system, what would they gain by launching?
Are you seriously suggesting another Iraq-style war that can't be won? Iran will make Iraq and more to the point, Vietnam, look like a picnic. They're not going to bow to threats, but they will talk things through if the Americans will stop with the bully tactics.
And forgive me, but it's been over 20 years since I was in 'class', but even back then there wasn't a member of my school class that couldn't be turned around with words rather than fists. We had a nasty piece of work in our class who turned out to be having a rough time at home, he just wanted someone to relate to. Took a term or two , but he came round.
Iran, they're not idiots. They're not hell-bent on war. They are people just like everyone else in the world and they want the best deal for their country. Posturing is all they know because of the terms set out by the West. If the terms change, so will the Iranian leadership.
Are you really suggesting that it is better to waste a million lives for the sake of posturing and bravado?
Posturing and bravado? Hardly. How about an extremely unstable state neutralized? I think that more accurately suits what I'm suggesting.
what would they gain by launching?
A bunch of dead Jews.
but they will talk things through if the Americans will stop with the bully tactics.
Are you so sure? They do seem to enjoy provoking the West. Actually, they do it every single time they get on the podium in the UN. Not a word Ahmadinejad or his diplomats say isn't meant to piss America off. It's what they love to do.
We had a nasty piece of work in our class who turned out to be having a rough time at home, he just wanted someone to relate to. Took a term or two , but he came round.
A term or two in the world's eye is decades. Sometimes we don't have that long. Maybe we do, maybe we don't. By the time we realize it's too late, however, it's too late. We're playing a game of Russian roulette by letting them go unchecked.
Iran, they're not idiots.
Are you so sure? It seems like a pretty grade-A psychotic dictatorship. Something tells me they don't much care about their people. The ayatollah and his minions rule the country with an iron fist, and prod the west every chance they get. It's sad, especially considering we created this beast.
If the terms change, so will the Iranian leadership.
Iranian leadership will change when the Iranian leadership is dead. Whether we do it or not is irrelevant, some people don't let go until the day they die.
A bunch of dead Jews.
I have to agree with Orion's view here. Any target for an Iranian missile will not likely be a "western" country, but most likely Israel. If Iran gets a nuclear bomb, that would also touch off an arms race in the Middle East, as Saudi Arabia has declared that if Iran has a nuke, they will try and get one. All of this means big trouble for Israel and her allies.
I believe Iran is just trying to open negotiations with the US or possibly the UN. Open warfare is the last thing Iran wants since they'd get destroyed. Their ships just don't have the ability to defend attacks from missiles and aircraft. Whatever western country has the most presence in the Strait will probably be the one to respond.
Any target for an Iranian missile will not likely be a "western" country, but most likely Israel.
It's much easier to hit Israel with a missile because its closer. I'm not entirely sure that Iran even has missiles capable of reaching the US but I bet they have some capable of hitting Israel.
my thoughts are to buy your gas now. it's loming at 101 a barrell. gas will shot way the hell up again. this is a potential cluter f. hopefully nothign bad happens and iran calms down
Iran won't close the Straight of Hermuz until more sanctions are imposed on them, as a deterent against more sanctions. Anyway it depends on how much they get pushed around. A country does have its breaking point and these sanctions affects citizens of Iran.
iran ... i am a iranian ... i live in iran ... and i sure you that if they do anything ... they will just get beaten up badly ... they are nothing ... they are just blufhing of power ... belive me ahmadynejad and the government are nothing ... and no one will help them if they make a war ... russia and china (*some ppl say they will help) but no ... its all just a lie or a joke ...
evry1 take a example of EnterOrion.
his attitude is exactly what i mean whit the attitude of most americans toward outsiders. and the very reason why i hate americans.
arrogant people that only shout bullcrap.
No matter how much one says about iran backing down or USA winning the war but the thing is, USA cant afford another war.
HAD they started it, their troops will be in a very weak position in that region(given that talibans prey upon them and pakistani tribals and army is not very friendly with them anymore)
their best bet will be missiles, but one can't launch too many of them(given the international pressure USA will face)
Sucks for Iran then because Saudi Arabi will get even more money from their oil. I doubt there would be a war, maybe a few predator strikes, but a war now would ruin Obama politically.
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