AGS Steam Games

Forums → WEPR → Kim Jong Il Dead

75 20731
Moe
offline
Moe
1,714 posts
Blacksmith

http://www.cnn.com/2011/12/18/world/asia/kim-jong-il-obit/index.html

It seems that Kim Jong Il has died, most likely leaving his son Kim Jong Un in charge of North Korea.

As this is a forum for discussion I was thinking we could talk about how this might effect the world and the foreign relations between North Korea and other countries.

I'm not really sure what to say about the topic, as I know little about Kim Jong Un or even if he really is in charge now. I would guess this could cause some problems, but as for the scope I couldn't say.

  • 75 Replies
thepunisher93
offline
thepunisher93
1,826 posts
Nomad

why do you want to police the world? their business is not your business.
stop poking around. police your own country.

Exactly what I want to say
Hypermnestra
offline
Hypermnestra
26,390 posts
Nomad

Am I the only one thinking that this would be the perfect time to get China to drop this sorry excuse for a nation, and allow us with South Korea to invade them in a mainly SK operation with US support? This could be the chance to reunify the Koreas that the world has been looking for.

Reunification of the Koreas cannot be accomplished through a violent invasion. If that happened, then even if South Korea was successful in annexing North Korea, the North Koreans would likely resent them. Besides, there's a reason that neither Korea dares to invade the other. The DMZ(De-Militarized Zone, the 38th Parallel, the border between North and South Korea) is guarded by over 1,000,000 North Korean troops and as many South Korean troops. An invasion of North Korea would be extremely costly in terms of lives, and money, and would be an unwise decision. If it comes to an invasion of North Korea, I doubt that the United States would support South Korea regardless. The U.S. and South Korea are allies, yes, but China and North Korea are allies as well. And if the United States supported a hostile takeover of North Korea, then China would have more than ample grounds for a trade embargo with the United States, and we all know how much the United States relies on China economically. The United Nations will likely withdraw support from South Korea if they do invade North Korea, not only because China and Russia(allies of North Korea) are permanent members of the security council, but also because the United Nations tends not to side with the aggressor. If South Korea invades North Korea first, they're the bad guys. It is worth mentioning that the current secretary general of the United Nations, Ban Ki-Moon, is a South Korean, but even if he does support a South Korean hostile takeover of North Korea, chances are that his voice will be drowned out. Cut off from support, South Kora will have a very difficult time in such a conflict. Their economy, which is of course booming at the present, could take a severe hit, and they could be sent spiraling into an economic crisis. A South Korean invasion of North Korea would be a Pyrrhic victory at best, and would only result in further discontent and conflict as they attempted to corral the North Korean citizens.
If the two Koreas are ever going to be reunited, it must be accomplished through careful and patient politics. And who knows, maybe you're right, and this is the perfect opportunity. Perhaps Kim Jong-un is more open to the rest of the world than his late father.

I think I saw his name before, but...With the death of Kim Jong-il, Jang Song-thaek essentially has control of what happens next in North Korea, and I very much doubt that he is going to elevate Kim Jong-un to power. Song-thaek was and still is one of the most powerful and high-ranking officials in North Korea, and while the North Korean citizens might buy into the whole "Kim Jong-il is a god" thing, the higher ranking officials certainly will not. I foresee a military coup and further martial law in North Korea. Kim Jong-un, who is only a child after all, will probably be killed or imprisoned by officials vying for the seat of power who don't appreciate the competition. Even if he does manage to ascend to power, I doubt that he will be able to rule a nation competently as young as he is.
invalid777
offline
invalid777
2,074 posts
Nomad

It made Google Trends! (Of course)

http://bit.ly/rqR9fC

If some sort of conflict breaks out, I'm pretty sure the U.S. will be the first to react. They don't want some communist issue, and their always first to help other nations and stuff.

China won't abandon North Korea because they both are Communist heavy-hitters in the region

And, I think they are both trading partners, so if they lose each other, then it won't be good.
Hypermnestra
offline
Hypermnestra
26,390 posts
Nomad

Oh, one more thing...

Tl;dr: An invasion of North Korea by South Korea would be a very bad idea. And there will be something rotten in the state of North Korea...a military coup opposed by the communist party, most likely.

Hypermnestra
offline
Hypermnestra
26,390 posts
Nomad

If some sort of conflict breaks out, I'm pretty sure the U.S. will be the first to react. They don't want some communist issue, and their always first to help other nations and stuff.

Maybe that would have been true, 20 or 30 years ago. But this isn't the Cold War anymore. The last thing that the United States wants is another war trying to police foreign soil, when they just got out of one. They are in dire economic straits as it is, and no doubt involvement in any conflict will only serve to make that worse. And besides, the United States doesn't really have a problem with communism anymore.
partydevil
offline
partydevil
5,129 posts
Jester

why is evry1 always forgeting that china is the country that keeps n-k and s-k at peace.
china is just as much communist as capitalist. they are the only country wich n-k has been listening to. china will never choose side in this conflict because they do not want a nuclear war next to itself.

FireflyIV
offline
FireflyIV
3,224 posts
Nomad

I think the awful thing this situation highlights is how little we have to go on to make educated guesses. Virtually nothing concrete is known about North Korea, the only information coming from laughable official sources or satellite imagery.

My guess would have to be more of the same. This particular son was chosen and groomed for leadership over his two brothers. Probably because he was most like his father. So I can't see much chance of anything changing unfortunately.

nichodemus
offline
nichodemus
14,991 posts
Grand Duke

The last thing that the United States wants is another war trying to police foreign soil, when they just got out of one.


Not just one mate....
nichodemus
offline
nichodemus
14,991 posts
Grand Duke

A large part of America's economy has been based on war for the last 60 years, without a war we need to find something to fill the gap. I'm not saying thats a good thing though.


The Iraq War alone cost a trillion dollars. What did the Americans get in return in terms of monetary rewards? Nothing, or not much.

I'm not so sure they care about the sorry state of their nation, as most of them are military people in a well treated military. And while they could see their "god" was frail, I think they were relying on the supposed love the people had for him to maintain order.


I didn't say they did care, I'm just saying how the upper echelons won't be so suspectible to the propaganda waves.

My guess would have to be more of the same. This particular son was chosen and groomed for leadership over his two brothers. Probably because he was most like his father. So I can't see much chance of anything changing unfortunately.


His eldest son, Kim Jong-nam has stated he does not want power, and for the last few years has been shuttling between Beijing and Macau, with occasional stops in France for medical reasons. He got caught trying to get into Tokyo Disneyland a few years back, hardly ruling material.

Kenji Fujimoto, Kim Jong-il's personal sushi chef, wrote in his memoir,that Kim Jong Il thought his second son, Jong-chul was "no good because he is like a little girl".

So I guess he was left with his youngest.
Toadlord
offline
Toadlord
497 posts
Shepherd

At best we see an opening up of the isolationist nation. This would be optimal for the US.

At worst the new regime decides to take a display of military might too far and stars nuking South Korea. You can bet America would be involved in this situation. We'd have to hope China wouldn't be...

Moe
offline
Moe
1,714 posts
Blacksmith

The Iraq War alone cost a trillion dollars. What did the Americans get in return in terms of monetary rewards? Nothing, or not much.


Like I said, its not a good thing, but it is still the basis of our economy.

I didn't say they did care, I'm just saying how the upper echelons won't be so suspectible to the propaganda waves.


They don't have to be, they rely on the propaganda to keep power.
nichodemus
offline
nichodemus
14,991 posts
Grand Duke

Like I said, its not a good thing, but it is still the basis of our economy.


I disagree. The economy doesn't run on producing goods for the military. Get a basic overview here.

They don't have to be, they rely on the propaganda to keep power.



My point was, that now their old leader is gone, with a more inexperienced one in place, they might size power in a coup.
Moe
offline
Moe
1,714 posts
Blacksmith

I disagree. The economy doesn't run on producing goods for the military. Get a basic overview here.


Last time I studied our economy a large amount of money was either going into the military or being spent by the military. Its not just producing goods, its paying all the personnel, maintain those goods we do have, and maintaining the buildings.

My point was, that now their old leader is gone, with a more inexperienced one in place, they might size power in a coup.


I would think that would be a bad idea, though it is possible. While Kim Jong Un didn't spend as much time as Kim Jung Il on propaganda before gaining power he does have the advantage of being third in his family to rule.
nichodemus
offline
nichodemus
14,991 posts
Grand Duke

Last time I studied our economy a large amount of money was either going into the military or being spent by the military. Its not just producing goods, its paying all the personnel, maintain those goods we do have, and maintaining the buildings.


The American GDP is 15 Trillion, and the military budget is roughly 700 billion. Let us not forget that some of those 700 billion goes towards paying America's allies such as Pakistan. A war doesn't stimulate an economy totally, it destroys lives, material, and sucks up resources that can be spent on other goods such as capital goods. Oh, and money going to the military doesn't necessarily does so because there is a war. Most countries maintain militarise which gobble up large parts of the budget in peace time. Wars are not an integral part of an economy, they might create new jobs, but one must also weigh it with the costs of maintaining the war, not just in terms of money.

I would think that would be a bad idea, though it is possible. While Kim Jong Un didn't spend as much time as Kim Jung Il on propaganda before gaining power he does have the advantage of being third in his family to rule.


That might or might not be an advantage. His survival doesn't depend so much on the people who are in dire poverty now, as much as the ruling party and the Army. It's also not so much the propaganda, but the leadership experience which Jong Un lacks as compared to his father, who did have much more experience and time to hone his political skills.
Deth666
offline
Deth666
653 posts
Nomad

It's very possible he'll just be some sort of figurehead but when they don't need him anymore they'll just kill him. If there is some sort of coup, they might try something like the Bolsheviks did with the Romanovs. Place him under house arrest then maybe later decide to murder him and his family. Although, for them to do anything they'd have to discredit him first in case he has any supporters who were loyal to his father.

Showing 16-30 of 75